Commercial Observer x TJ Parker: Incoming Administration Immigration Policy has Potential Impacts on Commercial Real Estate Industry

Bell Partners SVP of Data Analytics TJ Parker forecasts potential depression in CRE industry due to the intertwined natures of labor and real estate

Jan. 6, 2025 – TJ Parker, Senior Vice President of Data Analytics at Bell Partners Inc., was recently featured in a Commercial Observer article about 2025 interest rates forecasts. TJ’s commentary spoke to both the impact of deportation of undocumented immigrants and proposed tax cuts, both of which were included in the incoming administration’s immigration and related policies.

“[The promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants] might dissuade some employers from hiring immigrant groups. Construction, retail, leisure and hospitality — all these sectors benefit from immigration labor,” said Parker. “When there’s lower labor in these sectors, you’ll see corresponding wage growth tick up because there’s ample demand.”

“The [10-year Treasury] is the economy-wide cost of borrowing. It typically matches the nominal GDP growth rate — which is nothing but the real economic growth rate plus 2 percent inflation — so that’s how we get to 4 percent … Since 2022, economic growth has averaged 2.5 percent and the 10-year yield has averaged 3.7 percent over that same time period. So when we see higher economic growth, you see an uptick in the 10-year,
and you’ve seen this pattern before.”

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